Welcome to my first player prop recommendations article with The Odds Factory. Every Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday, I’ll be discussing some of my favorite props to pursue across various sportsbooks. As for this Wednesday, we have a ton of options with eleven games on the schedule. I’ve identified my four favorite NBA prop bets tonight, each of which happens to come from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
ANDRE DRUMMOND, ATL @ CLE: OVER 17.5 POINTS (-148)
Drummond was a monster for the Pistons this season, but they found themselves towards the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings despite his strong play. It was injuries to the likes of Blake Griffin (knee) and Luke Kennard (knee) that put them in a hole that they could not climb out of. With Drummond set to either pick up his hefty player option for next year or opt-out and sign a potentially-big free-agent contract, the Pistons decided to trade him to the Cavaliers at the deadline, despite getting a very underwhelming return.
The fit with the Cavaliers feels a little strange since they already have Tristan Thompson, Kevin Love, and Larry Nance Jr. in their frontcourt. With that said, Drummond is the unquestioned starting center, with Thompson moving into a limited role off the bench. Drummond remained his productive self in his first game with his new team, recording 19 points, 14 rebounds, three assists, and two steals across just 29 minutes on Sunday against the Clippers. This is a great matchup for him to have another strong offensive showing with the Hawks playing at the 7th-fastest pace and allowing the 2nd-most points per game in the league. Across the three games that he faced them as a member of the Pistons, he averaged 20 points and 14.7 rebounds. Add in Love possibly not playing because of an Achilles issue, and the over here is appealing.
MILES BRIDGES, CHA @ MIN: OVER 15.5 POINTS (-107)
The Hornets entered this season with the expectation of being one of the worst teams in the league, and they haven’t disappointed with their 17-36 record. They didn’t make a trade at the deadline, which wasn’t all that surprising since they didn’t have many appealing veterans to move. However, now that the deadline has passed and they want to give more minutes to their younger players, they did decide to buy out Marvin Williams and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist.
With the obvious need to see what they have in their young players, Bridges has logged at least 34 minutes in each of their last six games. He has cashed in on the opportunity by scoring at least 16 points per game and averaging 20.3 points overall. This is a great matchup for him against a Timberwolves team that has played at the 6th-fastest pace and allowed the 4th-most points per game, so look for him to continue his recent scoring surge.
JUAN HERNANGOMEZ, CHA @ MIN: OVER 8.5 POINTS (-134)
For the third of our best player prop bets in the NBA tonight, we’ll come back to this Charlotte/Minnesota game. It was clear that the Timberwolves needed to overhaul their roster at the trade deadline. It was no secret that they wanted to acquire D’Angelo Russell from the Warriors, who is friends with the Timberwolves’ star, Karl-Anthony Towns. They were eventually able to acquire their man. But it wasn’t the only move that they made leading up to the deadline. They were also involved in a four-team trade that resulted in them trading away Robert Covington and bringing in Hernangomez and Malik Beasley.
With little depth at power forward, Hernangomez has started and logged at least 26 minutes in both games with his new team. As a result of the added playing time and their up-tempo pace, he scored at least 14 points both times despite having to play good defensive teams in the Clippers and Raptors. Now he’ll face a Hornets team with the 5th-worst defensive rating in the league. Having James Johnson behind him will likely prevent Hernangomez from logging at least 30 minutes on a regular basis, but he should still receive plenty of playing time in order to hit the over on this small number.
ELFRID PAYTON, WAS @ NY: OVER 8.5 ASSISTS (+108)
Frankly, I find it surprising that the over here comes with plus odds. The Knicks have started to give Payton heavy playing time, resulting in him averaging 9.7 assists in 33 minutes a night across their last nine games. He failed to reach at least nine assists only twice, one of which he barely missed with eight dimes. The Knicks generally struggle to score, but they shouldn’t in this game with the Wizards allowing the most points per game in the league. On top of that, they have allowed the 4th-most assists per contest. Given the plus odds, this could be a risk that is well worth taking. For this reason, it might be one of the best NBA bets for tonight.