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Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Indians: Under 8 (-114)
The Minnesota Twins head to Cleveland tonight for the start of a three-game series against the 9-11 Indians. If you’ve read my basketball analysis before, you know I’m no stranger to betting an under, and that still rings true when it comes to betting on baseball.
You may be thinking to yourself that Zach Plesac, sporting a 6.75 ERA, is pitching for the Indians tonight. Why in the world would I bet the under? Well, let’s dig into that.
First, let’s take a look at the recent performance of the Twins. They have failed to score four or more runs in 10 of their last 11 games. They have failed to score three or more runs in eight of those last 11. Simply put, the bats have been asleep as of late. Not to mention, they have also lost 11 out of their last 13 games. Could Plesac be the guy that gives them their groove back? Maybe, but I’ll bet on the fact that he won’t.
Pitching for Minnesota is José Berríos. Being in the same division, we have a fairly large sample size of career performance for Cleveland players going up against Berríos. That sample size doesn’t bode well for the Indians, who have hit just .176 against him total for their careers in 84 plate appearances.
8 can sometimes seem like a scary number when it comes to betting a baseball total. My personal strategy is to bet alternative lines where I can just play things a little safer and even parlay a few to make it worth wetting my beak. I like this total at under 8, but if you want to play it up to 8.5, I’d take the half-run insurance.
The Pick: Under 8 (-114)
Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals: Over 8 (-115)
Now, just because I’m not afraid to bet an under doesn’t mean that I will only bet on unders.
This total jumped out at me right away when I saw it. I mentioned previous career performance against pitchers as a reason to bet on the under in the game above, and while it’s just one of many metrics you can use to make a decision on how to bet, I’ll be using it again here.
Adam Wainwright has been around for a while now. I remember way back when, he broke my heart with a pitch so nasty that Carlos Beltrán forgot to swing, and the Cardinals beat my Mets to go onto the World Series. Well, he hasn’t been quite as nasty against Phillies hitters throughout his career.
In 133 plate appearances, the current Phillies roster has a combined batting average of .342 against Wainwright. One guy he really hates to see is Mr. Bryce Harper, who has a .478 career average against him and hit a ball yesterday that still hasn’t landed. I think the Phillies can jump on Wainwright and his 5.03 ERA early and get the run parade started.
On the other side of things, we have Zack Wheeler going up against a deep Cardinals lineup. The Cards rank 10th in the MLB with 4.62 runs per game coming into this one and have hit Wheeler well in a more limited sample size (.333 in 51 plate appearances). While Wheeler has the kind of gear that can be turned on and just shut a team down, I think it will be difficult to pull off against this team.
The Pick: Over 8 (-115)
Bonus Picks:
Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals: Paul DeJong to hit a Home Run (+550)
DeJong is 3-6 career against Wheeler and has taken him deep twice.
For those of you that use FanDuel, I’ve been dabbling in parlays of guys to get 2+ hits in a game. There isn’t much logic to it aside from targeting guys who have hit the pitcher they are facing well in the past. You can get good odds on these, and while they are tough to hit, they can be great bankroll builders with a $5 bet netting you over $100 most nights. Here is my play for tonight:
Bryce Harper, Justin Upton, and Marcell Ozuna to record 2+ hits (+2884)
Harper career vs. Wainwright – 11-23 (.478)
Upton career vs. Lyles – 6-13 (.462)
Ozuna career vs. Davies – 9-23 (.391)
