Season Record: 4-5
It was a tough one for TomBox earlier this week, but the best thing about baseball is there’s always action the next day to dust yourself off and try again, as the great Aaliyah once said. It’s Friday night, which means we have a pretty full slate of MLB games to choose from. And since our TomBox AI algorithm already simulated each contest 10,000 times, we have a pretty good idea of what’s likely going to happen. Let’s get to the picks!
Best Moneyline Pick
Detroit Tigers @ Oakland Athletics: Oakland ML (-185)
Despite Detroit taking two of three in Houston this week, the TomBox algorithm likes surging Oakland, which is on an AL-best five-game winning streak. Oakland Athletics starter Frankie Montas has a very strong 51% chance of having a quality start tonight, as opposed to Detroit Tigers starter José Ureña‘s 35% chance. Led by a projected 2.61 walks, hits, and RBIs from Mark Canha, Oakland is projected to take a 5-3.8 win. Our model gives a 64.7% chance of an A’s win.
Best Spread Pick
Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox: Boston +1.5 (-185)
Boston has been one of the biggest early-season surprises to date. And the TomBox algorithm expects that to continue in the battle of the sox. The Red Sox hold the pitching edge, with Nick Pivetta having the higher quality start likelihood than Dylan Cease, 39% to 34%. With J.D. Martinez’s game-leading 2.74 walks, hits, and RBIs expected, Boston is not only expected to cover the spread but win. We’re giving the Red Sox a 57.2% chance to cover.
Best Over/Under Pick
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals: Under 8.5 (-115)
With Max Scherzer on the mound at home for the Nats, you can expect runs to be at a premium. This will be especially true with promising righty Taylor Widener on the hill for Arizona. Mad Max’s quality start chances are at 53%, which will be enough to keep this game at a 4.2-3.7 Washington win, narrowly clearing the under.
