Mike’s Twitter: @MOConnor_NBA
Happy Easter weekend, everyone. Last week, I was able to eke out a 3-3 record largely thanks to Karl-Anthony Towns and the Timberwolves’ incredible comeback. This week, we’ve got another action-packed NBA slate with some interesting lines. So let’s dive into some picks to make you money.
Smart Money NBA Betting Picks for Tonight’s Action
Dallas Mavericks @ Washington Wizards: Mavericks -5.5 (+105)
Normally, this isn’t my type of pick. The Mavs are on the road on the second night of a back-to-back. And they just played a physical game against the Knicks.
But what’s stopping me from taking the Wizards getting 5.5 is the fact that Bradley Beal remains questionable with a hip injury that has caused him to miss the last three games. Without Beal, the Wizards are just a miserably awful team, and the Mavericks should be able to steamroll them.
I can guarantee that this spread will move even higher if Beal is announced as out some time this afternoon. In some ways, this is a high-risk play, betting that you’ll get a bargain in the event that Beal doesn’t play. If you’d like to play it safe, you can wait until closer to tip-off so that you know Beal’s status before betting. If he plays, don’t take the Mavs here.
New York Knicks @ Detroit Pistons: Knicks -1.5 (-110)
I am once again betting against my back-to-back policy (the Knicks played at home last night), this time because the Pistons are just so terrible that I feel extremely confident that the Knicks will take care of business.
Tired legs or not, the one thing you know you’re always getting from the Knicks is defense. They have the 4th best defensive rating in the league, and the Pistons rank 23rd in offense. My thinking here is that the Knicks are able to put the Pistons in a straight jacket and keep this game from ever getting close. As long as New York has solid performances offensively from RTwitterJ Barrett and Julius Randle, this one is a wrap.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Philadelphia 76ers: Sixers -12 (-130)
The Timberwolves played last night in Memphis. And now they have to travel to Philly to play the well-rested and Joel Embiid-infused Sixers. Embiid’s return will galvanize the Sixers, and Philly will blow the doors off of the Timberwolves.
The Wolves have been playing half-decent basketball over the past 10 games or so, but they’re still highly prone to getting blown out by a good team. Just in the past three weeks, they have had five losses by 12 or more. Given the precedent, I have confidence that Philly can build up enough of a lead to cover this spread.
Top Player Props for Tonight’s NBA Action
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Miami Heat: Victor Oladipo Over 16.5 Points (-107)
Victor Oladipo looked awfully fired up to be playing for Miami in his debut against the Warriors Thursday night. Despite his limited scoring, he was flying around the court defensively, drawing charges and playing with a high motor.
My thinking here is that Oladipo’s scoring will click against a weak defensive team in Cleveland. Jimmy Butler and company will be content to defer to Oladipo in an effort to get him acclimated to the offense, and the result will be Oladipo hitting the over on this point total.
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Portland Trail Blazers: Moses Brown Over 12.5 Points (-120)
It looks like Vegas hasn’t quite caught up to Moses Brown’s emergence in Oklahoma City. Brown has had a handful of 20-point games lately after starting the year as an afterthought. With OKC now banishing Al Horford to purgatory, Brown should have even more opportunities to produce. Going against a weak defensive team in Portland, my thinking is that Brown (who is 7-foot-2) will be able to dominate the interior and put up a whole bunch of points.
New York Knicks @ Detroit Pistons: Julius Randle Over 22.5 Points (-110)
I always like to double down by betting at least one prop on a player whose team I also bet on. Here, I like Julius Randle’s odds of carrying New York’s offense against a team that lacks the physicality to contain him. Randle will be able to bully Jerami Grant and company in the post, leading to a highly productive evening. Randle struggled mightily from the floor against Dallas last night. So you can bet that he’ll feel highly motivated to go at Detroit’s mediocre defense.
