The NBA play-in tournament is off to a hot start, and after last night’s game-winning three from LeBron James (who “bravely” battled a tragic “injury” to his eye), we have the 7th seeds solidified in both conferences. The last two spots are up for grabs tonight and tomorrow, as the Indiana Pacers and Washington Wizards square up in the East and Memphis and Golden State battle in the West, but let’s be honest – none of those teams really have a shot at winning the title this year.
That means one thing…it’s the perfect time to start placing those NBA Championship futures bets while the odds are still good. There’s nothing I like better than putting a couple of units on 4 or 5 teams at the start of the playoffs and giving myself some vested interest throughout the tournament. This can be a bit dicey in the NFL, where really any team can win the title, but in the NBA – a sport where you usually need a top 10 star to win a title – there’s really only a few teams that have a legitimate shot each year, so at least one of these NBA Championship futures bets is bound to hit. At least that’s what I tell myself at night.
Smart Money NBA Championship Futures Bets
Brooklyn Nets: +225
The odds-on favorite from Vegas, this team is about as loaded as it comes. They have arguably 3 of the most naturally-gifted scorers in the league with Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, and James Harden, plus a very solid rotation of Joe Harris, Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan, and Jeff Green to help clean up the scraps down low. This team has absolutely no issue putting the ball in the hole. And they led the league in field goal percentage and were second in scoring with 118 points per game.
Their issue is going to be defense and chemistry. They were 21st in the league in points allowed per game and allowed opponents to shoot 37% from the three-point line. That’s not great for a team with championship aspirations. Sure, Durant can turn it on defensively whenever he wants and DeAndre Jordan can defend the rim. But they’re desperately missing that one defensive stopper to help slow down another team’s best player.
Then there’s the issue of chemistry. Thanks to injuries, the Big Three of Harden, Kyrie, and Durant have played just 8 games together. For three-ball dominant players with similar playing styles, it’s going to be tough to figure out how to mesh quickly, not to mention how to incorporate new signings like Blake Griffin.
At the end of the day, it’s hard to convince me to bet against a team this stacked. MVP-level talent wins titles in the NBA, and the Nets have 3 of those players. Put a unit on them here, and bet they’ll figure it out as they go.
Los Angeles Clippers: +550
While they’re the 4th seed in the West, this team (at least on paper) has the most stacked roster. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are undoubtedly among the top two-way players in the league and determined to make up for last year’s second-round bubble collapse. They’re surrounded by solid veterans like Patrick Beverley, Marcus Morris, Serge Ibaka, and Rajon Rondo who have playoff experience, high basketball IQ, and defensive tenacity. What I love about this team is their balance. They’re 4th in the league in points allowed, 10th in scoring, and 1st in three-point shooting percentage. They have elite talent at every position, and when everyone is healthy, they’re tough to beat.
Unfortunately, this team has a ton of question marks, especially when it comes to chemistry. Like the Nets, they’ve battled injuries throughout the year, leading to inconsistency and question marks heading into the postseason. They haven’t been able to find a true third scoring option. And there’s always the question of which Paul George will show up in the big moments. Plus, they have a tough matchup in the first round against Dallas and Luka Dončić, who averaged 31 PPG, 9.8 rebounds, and 8.7 assists in last year’s first-round playoff matchup.
I know all these question marks exist, but guess what? I don’t give a shit. They have all the ingredients for a title – star duo, head coach, veteran depth (Rondo is a huge pickup), and elite three-point shooting. I’m betting on Paul George to prove the haters wrong and bring the Clippers their first title.
Utah Jazz: +700
The #1 seed in the West, Utah has been the most consistent team in the NBA and has had the best record in the league for the majority of the year. They’re top 5 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, have had winning streaks of 11 games and 9 games (twice), and have won 39 games by double digits. They’ve been absolutely dominating teams with their combination of lockdown defense (Rudy Gobert is once again putting together a DPOY campaign), elite scoring from Donovan Mitchell (27 points per game), and a balanced overall attack (Jordan Clarkson, Mike Conley, and Bojan Bogdanović all average 17+ PPG).
While there are concerns with injuries, as Donovan Mitchell missed the past month with an ankle sprain and Mike Conley has sat out 9 straight with hamstring tightness, they’ll likely coast past either Memphis or Golden State in the first round and give their guys plenty of rest for the second round. The real question mark is playoff experience. This team has yet to make a deep run in the playoffs and has zero players with NBA title wins on the roster.
So what? While this team lacks some of the star power of other contenders, they’ve been dominating teams all year and can lean on their defense in tough moments. Plus, they are opening their stadium to 71% capacity for the postseason, a huge win for the team with home-court advantage throughout the playoffs and some of the most rabid fans in the NBA. That alone will be enough to propel them through at least one series and help them win the title.
New York Knicks: +10,000
Realistically, the New York Knicks aren’t going to win the title. Yes, Julius Randle has exploded this year and played his way into getting some top 5 MVP votes. They have a great balance of a young core with RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, and Obi Toppin plus veteran leadership from guys like Derrick Rose, Nerlens Noel, and Elfrid Payton. They have home-court advantage and a great matchup against the Hawks in the first round. There’s a lot to like.
Sadly, I just don’t see it this year for the Knicks. While Randle and Barrett have taken huge jumps this year, they have zero playoff experience and can’t carry a team. The Knicks are probably still a year or two away and still need one more superstar to be a serious contender.
So why am I putting a future on them? Have you seen those +10,000 odds???? If the Knicks actually do shock the world, you are going to be absolutely furious with yourself if you missed the opportunity to make money with your NBA Championship futures bets while enjoying the most fun title run in years. Hedge your own happiness and hammer this bad boy.
Of course, all of this is subject to change every day, so make sure you stay tuned in all playoffs long for our expert’s top picks here at The Odds Factory.
