Normally, by this time of year, we’re ending the regular season and starting the NBA playoffs on Saturday. Instead, we have another four weeks of ball before the play-in tournaments. For you, that means another month of getting to exploit matchups and bets that we know are gonna be in your favor.
Our dashing AI algorithm TomBox never rests, simulating games thousands of times like an Adderall-obsessed quant to give you the best chances of profiting every single day. Tonight, our player prop picks focus on the sport’s greatest rivalry and the late game on TNT, the Celtics versus Lakers. Though LeBron James and Anthony Davis remain out for Los Angeles, the buzz and intrigue remain.
Top Player Prop Picks
Boston Celtics @ Los Angeles Lakers: Jayson Tatum Over 26.5 Points (-105)
Over seven games in April, Tatum is playing his best basketball of the season, averaging 29.4 points and 8.6 rebounds per game on 51.1% from the field and 41.3% from three. In fact, the TomBox algorithm projects Tatum will be right at that average with 29.8 points in this tilt against the Lakers. Not having LeBron defending Tatum definitely helps as well.
Boston Celtics @ Los Angeles Lakers: Kyle Kuzma More Points than Marcus Smart (-139)
Kuzma has been in what Boston fans would call a wicked slump this month, shooting 38.9% from the field and 27.9% from three. But he’s still averaged 16.4 points in April because the Lakers still need him shooting it way too much with their two superstars out of the lineup. The Celtics just don’t need Marcus Smart as much to be as successful offensively. The TomBox algorithm expects Kuzma to outscore Smart 19.2-12.8 here.
Top Moneyline Pick
Milwaukee Bucks @ Atlanta Hawks: Milwaukee ML (-165)
The early game on TNT features the Bucks against the surging Hawks. Milwaukee has 16 road wins this season, tied for 2nd most in the East, and is projected to flex its muscles tonight. Shooting 49.1% from the field to Atlanta’s 46.6%, winning the rebounding battle by 1.9, and hitting 2.5 more three-pointers will all contribute to an estimated 10-point win for the Bucks. The TomBox algorithm gives this outcome a 71% chance of happening.
Top Spread Pick
Sacramento Kings @ Phoenix Suns: Sacramento +12.5 (-110)
The Kings are on a league-high eight-game losing streak, and that’s definitely not stopping tonight in Phoenix. But the TomBox algorithm believes this 12.5-point line is excessive. The Suns still have a nice 69% chance to win. But Sacramento is still projected to shoot nearly 50% from the field and stay virtually even in the turnover battle. The Kings are still gonna lose this one 120.3-114.7, with an estimated 71% chance to cover this spread.
Top Over/Under Pick
Milwaukee Bucks @ Atlanta Hawks: Over 231 (-105)
It’s supposed to be 66 and partly cloudy outside in Atlanta at game time, but it’s gonna be raining threes inside. With both teams shooting in the high 40% range overall and a projected 30.7 made triples coming in this game, the TomBox algorithm says the Bucks will beat the Hawks 122-112 in this game. That’ll clear the 231 and give us tonight’s best over opportunity.
