Happy Mother’s Day to all the degenerates out there. Best of luck if you’re seeing your mom today for brunch or dinner while you have a million bets going on. Try and stay calm and only check your phone once every 11 minutes so your family doesn’t totally think you have an issue. Luckily, if you’re betting with our TomBox algorithm, which simulates each game 10,000 times and projects results with startling accuracy, you should be a little less stressed about your bets hitting. There’s a full slate of basketball games today and tonight, so don’t bet without checking our top picks from the algorithm
Top Moneyline Pick
Sacramento Kings vs. Oklahoma City Thunder: Sacramento ML (-375)
Now, you won’t get a ton of value with this line at -375, but the TomBox algorithm has this matchup as a virtual lock for Sacramento, giving them an 88% chance of winning tonight’s game. And I’m all for it. The end of the NBA season is the perfect time to make money, particularly when bottom dwellers who are eliminated from the playoffs like OKC are playing teams fighting for the last remaining spots, like Sacramento, who’s locked up a spot in the play-in tournament but could move up as high as the 10th seed if they play well. Listen to the analytics and take Sacramento here and capitalize on that desperation.
Top Spread Pick
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Phoenix Suns: Los Angeles Lakers +7.5 (-110)
These are two teams in completely opposite situations. The Suns are playing their best basketball heading into the playoffs, having won 6 of their last 7 games and fighting their way to just 1.5 games back from the top seed. The Lakers have LOST 6 of their last 7 and are sliding down the West standings into the play-in game territory. Still, 7.5 points is a lot to be giving the defending champs and the TomBox algorithm agrees, predicting a cover from LA with 77% certainty. With LeBron out again, we’re looking at a big night from Anthony Davis, with a projected 27 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 2.1 blocks from the big man.
Top Over/Under Pick
Dallas Mavericks @ Cleveland Cavaliers: Over 216.5 (-125)
Not a ton on the line tonight, with the Cleveland Cavaliers eliminated from playoff contention and the Dallas Mavericks having clinched the division and all but guaranteed a 5 or 6-seed in the playoffs. But, look for the offenses to come to play today, as the TomBox algorithm is projecting an over with 61% certainty and a combined point total of 223. We project Luka Dončić to near a triple-double tonight, with a projected 29 points, 8 assists, and 8 rebounds, while Collin Sexton should lead the scoring for Cleveland with 25.5 points.
