Besides janitor at a strip club, professional fighter might be the most demanding, least desirable job of all time. Sure, if you’re at the very top, you might win millions, achieve worldwide fame and maybe even get to star in some shitty action movies when you retire. But it doesn’t change the fact that your livelihood is based on you repeatedly getting hit in the face, fluctuating between weight classes at a rate that would make Jonah Hill shudder, and training harder than Mulan before everyone figured out that she was a girl.
You have to really want that life. The more success you get, the easier it is to lose your edge. As boxing legend Marvin Hagler once said, “it’s hard to get out of the bed in the morning to go for a run when you’re sleeping in silk sheets.” After careful consideration this week, I’m fully convinced Conor McGregor has been sleeping in silk sheets for far too long and is going to get his ass beat at UFC 257.
Why Poirier Will Surprise McGregor (and the World) at UFC 257
No one in the world is giving Dustin Poirier a shot on Saturday night. Even the most generous books have him at +240 odds to win outright at UFC 257, nearly twice the payout as McGregor winning in the first round (+160.) And I get it – Conor is Conor. He’s one of the best fighters of all time and the biggest name in the fighting world right now, boxing included. But it’s not like Poirier is some scrub. He’s only lost twice in the last 5 years (one of those to Khabib) and is a much different fighter than he was in 2014 when he lost to Conor in less than 2 minutes.
Here’s how he’ll shock the world and beat McGregor at UFC 257 on Saturday night.
Stamina and Durability
There’s no way around it – McGregor might have the best finishing power of all time. He has won 20 of his 22 fights by knockout, and his left hook puts people to sleep faster than my dad explaining a Roth IRA to me. Conor’s going to come out of the gate hard and try to replicate his last fight from almost exactly 1 year ago when he KOed Cerrone in 40 seconds.
Scary stuff, but Poirier can take a beating. He’s one of the most durable fighters right now, and if he can withstand the early onslaught, he has a very good shot at winning. Conor’s barely fought in the last 4 and a half years, and conditioning has never been his strong suit to begin with – if he has to go the distance, he’s in trouble.
Here’s a quick summary of all McGregor’s last 5 fights:
July 9, 2016 – Beats Diaz by decision in a rematch in welterweight.
September 27, 2016 – Beats Alvarez in 2nd round TKO for the lightweight championship.
August 26, 2017 – Loses to Floyd Mayweather in 10th round by TKO (boxing).
October 6, 2018 – Loses to Khabib Nurmagomedov in 4th round by submission.
January 18th, 2020 – Beats Donald Cerrone in 1st round by TKO (40 seconds).
Outside of a 40-second knockout last year and a barroom brawl with an old man, Conor hasn’t had a full fight since he lost over 2 years ago, a fight that frankly wasn’t even close. Dustin Poirier is well known for his conditioning and has gone the distance (5 rounds) in his last two wins. He has got the clear advantage here, not just because he’s under the age of 70.
Tipping the Scales to Lightweight
The fight is being held at the lightweight division, a bump in weight-class from their 2014 featherweight matchup. Poirier was public about the toll that cutting down to 145 took on him, even hinting that the cut was more daunting than the actual fight. 155 is a much more comfortable class for Poirier and allows him to bulk up a bit for McGregor, which could translate to the ground game.
Neither fighter is great on the ground and both prefer to stand and strike with feet and hands. However, if push comes to shove, the edge has to go to Poirier. McGregor’s 4 losses in UFC have all come from submission, and Poirier has 7 submissions under his belt. If Poirier can put Conor on the ground and get the tap-out, he’ll go home a very rich man.
Stakes and Motivation
The mental aspect is hands-down the most important part of this fight. While both of these guys are professionals, the stakes for each fighter are drastically different.
McGregor wants Khabib. It’s all he has talked about in the build-up to this fight. The winner of UFC 257 will probably get a shot at the lightweight title. If it’s Conor, Khabib will likely come out of his “retirement” to defend the crown, we’ll get the rematch of the century, and Conor will be fighting for his place in history as one of the all-time greats. What a lovely story. True poetry.
The only problem is, he’s completely looking past Poirier. He’s flashing his $1.4 million-dollar watch, taunting Jake Paul and Floyd Mayweather, and hanging out with his children. I’m sorry Conor, but maybe get a sitter and focus on the fight.
Poirier is as motivated as he has ever been. He’s ready to avenge his loss in 2014, a setback that shifted his mindset completely. As he said in his press conference, “I used to care too much. I don’t care. That’s a superpower. Not giving a fuck. That’s it.” A win for him tonight has life and career-changing implications. Like Conor, it puts him one step closer to becoming the undisputed lightweight champion of the world. The only difference is, he’s not overlooking his opponent or distracted by yet another sexual assault lawsuit like McGregor. He’s laser-focused on the only thing that matters – winning Saturday and making me enough money to buy The Odds Factory.
