Mike’s Season Record: 7-4
Mike’s Twitter: @rotomikebarner
We’ve had a couple of winning weeks, leaving me with a 7-4 record with my picks. Let’s try to keep things rolling during Tuesday’s busy MLB slate with the following three wagers to consider. All odds were obtained from the DraftKings SportsBook and BetMGM Sportsbook.
St. Louis Cardinals @ Washington Nationals: Cardinals Over 4.5 Runs (+110)
The Cardinals smoked the Nationals in the first game of this series, scoring 12 runs on their way to a win. They slugged five home runs, four of which came off of Nationals’ starter Joe Ross. Not only had Ross not allowed a home run in either of his first two starts of the season, but he had thrown 11 scoreless innings heading into the matchup.
It wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Cardinals hang another crooked number on the Nationals with Patrick Corbin set to take the mound. He’s been destroyed in his first two starts, allowing 16 runs (15 earned) and four home runs over 6 1/3 innings. What’s crazy is that he allowed 10 runs to the Diamondbacks in his last outing. They have scored a total of 63 runs across their other 15 games this season. Corbin’s numbers started to show a decline last season, especially with his lack of strikeouts. So, at plus odds, the risk could be worth the potential reward with this wager.
San Francisco Giants @ Philadelphia Phillies: Phillies ML (-152)
The Phillies couldn’t get their bats going in the first game of this series Monday. They lost 2-0 with Kevin Gausman on the mound for the Giants. They had their chances, though, leaving 11 runners on base. With that being said, Gausman was a tough matchup, coming off of a 2020 season in which he had a 3.09 FIP and a 1.11 WHIP.
This is a much more favorable matchup for the Phillies against Logan Webb. Webb has a 5.30 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP for his career. Also, the Phillies will deploy one of their better starters in Zack Wheeler, who began his Phillies’ career with a 3.22 FIP and 1.17 WHIP in 2020. He has shown much of the same performance through his first three outings of 2021, posting a 2.59 FIP. Look for the Phillies to bounce back with a win here.
Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees: Under Alternate Total 9.5 Runs (-145)
It’s early, but it’s still shocking to see the Yankees tied with the Rangers for the worst OPS (.642) in baseball. The Bronx Bombers have only hit 16 home runs, which ranks inside the bottom-10 in baseball. This is a tough spot for them to shift back on track with Charlie Morton expected to start for the Braves. For his career, he has a 3.80 FIP and a 32.4 percent strikeout rate against them.
Another reason why this could end up being a low-scoring affair is that Ronald Acuña Jr. (abdomen) likely will not play for the Braves tonight. He’s been spectacular out of the gate, hitting .419 with seven home runs, 16 RBI, and 21 runs scored. The actual line on total runs for this game between the New York Yankees and Atlanta Braves is 8.5 runs. And if forced to choose, then I think it goes under that number. However, with the Yankees’ ability to explode any given night, I feel more comfortable rolling with the under on this alternate line.
