Season Record: 9-6
After a bit of a slow start, the TomBox algorithm is 5-1 in its last six picks, blazing as we hit this 19th of April. It’s a lighter, seven-game schedule on the MLB docket today. But that shouldn’t prevent the TomBox algorithm from starting the week with some wins and giving our readers some extra cash for the next few days and spark a true rally.
Top Moneyline Pick
Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels: Los Angeles ML (-219)
Firstly, the TomBox algorithm is really, really high on Los Angeles Angels starter Dylan Bundy tonight against the Texas Rangers. We’re giving him a 71% chance to record a quality start. Texas pitcher Kohei Arihara? Just 41%, which isn’t bad but at a significant disadvantage here. Led by Mike Trout’s 2.72 walks, hits, and RBIs, the Angels are projected to win 4.7-2.8, with our model giving this win a 72.6% chance of happening.
Top Spread Pick
St. Louis Cardinals @ Washington Nationals: Washington +1.5 (-165)
Despite being their ace, we’re giving Cardinals starter Jack Flaherty just a 32% chance to have a quality start tonight. Washington starter Joe Ross is at 37%, which means we’re in for some runs. With Juan Soto expected to outperform Nolan Arenado, the TomBox algorithm projects the Nats to win a close 4.5-4.2 contest, which will obviously cover the 1.5.
Top Over/Under Pick
San Francisco Giants @ Philadelphia Phillies: Under 8.5 (-105)
Despite a relatively low chance of starters in this game faring well, with a 42% quality start chance for Phillies’ hurler Chase Anderson and a 36% chance for Giants ace Kevin Gausman, the TomBox algorithm is projecting a low-scoring affair. With Philadelphia projected to win just 4-3.7, that’s nearly a run under the 8.5 line. Our model gives the under a 60.6% chance.
