There is a video ingrained in my brain of Dikembe Mutombo clutching a basketball like his firstborn child, lying on the ground screaming to the Basketball Gods as his 8-seed Nuggets upset the heavily favored 1-seed Seattle SuperSonics in the 1994 playoffs. It was about as pure and happy of a moment in NBA hoops as I could remember, and even though I was a huge Shawn Kemp fan, Dikembe’s tears of joy made the victory even more beautiful than if the Sonics would have won. For me, it marked a new benchmark in my NBA fandom. How exciting are the NBA playoff upsets?
A Brief History of NBA Playoff Upsets
Throughout the ‘80s and ‘90s, upsets weren’t very common in the NBA. Most basketball fans were used to NCAA Tournament 15-seeds taking down 2-seeds (shoutout Steve Nash), but the thought of an NBA Titan losing to an 8-seed was about as probable as Frank Nkitilina stopping Trae Young in the Knicks-Hawks game one Sunday.
IT JUST DIDN’T HAPPEN.
But then, the Knicks upset the Heat in 1999. Years later, the #8 seed Warriors upset the defending champ #1 seed Mavericks in 2007. Kyrie shut down the Warriors in 2016. And this past week? The Grizzlies beat potential MVP Stephen Curry and the Warriors.
I’m not saying that a play-in game in today’s NBA feels like this past epic playoff series? But it sort of has me thinking…
After the defending champion Los Angeles Lakers dropped GAME ONE to the (WHO?) Phoenix Suns - the talk around the league is “horrendous,” “embarrassing,” and ‘What the hell is wrong with AD, man!?”
DA outplayed AD?
LISTEN. We all need to calm down. Let’s take a second and look back at the new “Play-in Tournament.”
The Play-In Tournament “Upsets”
At least three of the play-in games felt like upsets, and I’ll even go so far as to admit that I did NOT predict the Warriors losing to the Grizzlies in an elimination game.
Maybe it was because the Golden State Warriors seem to be perennial playoff contenders, and certainly surprised everybody this year without Klay Thompson to win their final six games and hit the Play-In. But, when a big-time team like the DUBS loses to the Memphis Grizzlies, it feels like an UPSET. I had the same feeling when the Pacers lost to the Wizards in their elimination game. And I actually had money on the Pacers to win the East earlier this season. (Dumb, I know – but the odds were sort of incredible).
Sadly, as much as I love Sabonis – he may need to go join his own superteam to make a real playoff run – I guess I thought Indiana had a SQUAD. I was wrong. But – bottom line? Most of us had Westbrook, Beal, and the Wizards in the cellar following their 4-12 opening this season, and the smart bettor took Indiana to win that play-in.
Who’ll Fall First This Postseason?
So who IS NEXT?
The 7-seed Lakers vs. the 2-seed Suns? People are already screaming upset because the Lakers are defending champs and have LeBron and AD. (Even though Deandre Ayton looked like a BEAST in his playoff debut, breaking rebound records and outplaying The Brow in game one…) Still, everyone has the #7 LAKERS to take down the #2 Suns, and right now, the Lakers have the second-best odds to win the NBA Championship (+450).
So if the Suns keep winning – is that an UPSET?
How?
How can a hungry All-Star, two future possible Hall of Famers (Booker and Chris Paul), and a decent former #1 pick (Ayton) shut down two top 50 players of all time?
What Constitutes a True Upset?
It all comes down to age, supporting cast, and Lakers fans’ expectations…
Lakers fans don’t like to win only once (especially in a “Bubble Year”). If LA signs superstars like LeBron and AD – the city expects 5 TITLES. The way it went down with MAGIC and SHAQ and KOBE and PAU. But look – Anthony Davis and LeBron put it together last year and did their thing. So, why are they not favored for a REPEAT? And why would a Suns victory classify as an upset?
Injuries teach you to appreciate every moment. For the Lakers, having Davis and LeBron go down when they did hurt their repeat chances and now they are in a must-win game two to prove that they were indeed legit during the Bubble. The sad thing is that, in the annals of NBA history, somebody is going to ASTERISK that championship forever.
Obviously, NBA playoff upsets are NEVER easy to predict. And NOT ALL UPSETS ARE CREATED EQUAL. Injuries, fatigue, and expectations play a big role…
The History of Upsets in the NBA Playoffs
Anyone remember the 1981 first round, when the Rockets took down the defending champ Lakers? Kareem and Magic introduced the world to the “Championship Hangover” in a Game 5 where Moses Malone became even more of a household name. Of course, Larry Bird and the Celtics took everybody down that year, but everybody had money on the Lakers.
20 years later, Shane Battier and Zach Randolph took down the 2011 San Antonio Spurs. And the hits kept coming.
We could get into the ‘70s here with teams that NO READER of this column cares about (Google what you will), but in modern times, nothing hits me harder than the 2004 Pistons shutting down the Superteam Lakers with Shaq, Kobe, Gary Payton, and Karl Malone.
Was it an upset? Or did the better team win? I did not see chemistry in LA that season that matched the Pistons back then. Yet the basketball experts considered it an upset.
In 1999, the New York Knicks took down their new arch-rival, the Miami Heat (Jeff Van Gundy leg grab represent), and became the first 8-seed to reach the NBA Finals… only to lose to Tim Duncan and the Spurs…
But was that an UPSET? Or just better/younger players just hitting their stride?
The Final Verdict
We will never be sure, but the bottom line is that if the 2-seed Suns take down the injury-plagued Lakers – it will be looked at as a lost season for LA. Then again, it can’t be worse than the Los Angeles Clippers Kawhi/Paul George experiment that just can’t seem to break out of the first round.
If Chris Paul can stay healthy, the Suns have a good chance at proving the naysayers wrong. Whatever the case, the playoffs are upon us, and there will certainly be some shockers in the upcoming days. No matter who comes out on top, upsets are a part of the NBA, and as much as many Angelenos would love to see the Lakers repeat as champions again, most of us would prefer to see Dikembe Mutombo clutching the basketball in happiness rather than LeBron complaining about his shoulder or eyesight.
Let the NBA playoff upsets begin…
