After mostly focusing on college basketball last week, TomBox NBA is back in full force on its regular Tuesday night. And on this 3/16, we’re gonna give you our stone-cold locks because we said so.
As always, we’re gonna give you player prop picks and best bets for moneyline, spread, and over/under. And since it’s St. Patrick’s Day Eve, it’s only fitting that our player prop picks involve a team wearing green, as the Boston Celtics host the Utah Jazz.
Top Player Prop Picks
Utah Jazz @ Boston Celtics: Donovan Mitchell Over 2.5 Made 3-Pointers (-175)
Spida averages 3.3 made three-pointers per game, and the TomBox algorithm expects him to make 3.4 tonight against Boston. The Celtics are a little better than average in threes allowed per game, but Mitchell has gone over this total in four of his last five and six of his previous 10 games.
Utah Jazz @ Boston Celtics: Jayson Tatum Over 2.5 Made 3-Pointers (+150)
It’s a three-for-all with our player prop picks today. While Tatum only hits 2.6 triples per contest, the TomBox algorithm projects 3.3 of them against Utah. He has hit at least three in four of his previous five contests, and that streak is expected to continue.
Top Moneyline Pick
Atlanta Hawks @ Houston Rockets: Atlanta ML (-440)
Betting markets are not too friendly to teams that have lost 16 straight games, and the Houston Rockets are no exception. They’re 9.5-point home dogs against a Hawks team that hasn’t exactly been lighting the world on fire. Yet the TomBox algorithm gives Atlanta a 74.2% chance to win this game outright thanks to Houston’s projected 43.8% shooting from the field.
Atlanta is expected to win the 3-point battle 15.3-13.8 behind 29.7 points and 10 assists from Trae Young. And with a comfortable 116-104 margin, the Hawks will extend the Rockets’ losing streak to 17 games and give you an easy, though not very lucrative, win.
Top Spread Pick
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Chicago Bulls: Chicago -5.5 (-110)
Oklahoma City has actually been pretty good lately, winning three of its last four and five of eight. But four of those five victories have been at home, and tonight’s game heads to the United Center, where the Bulls are coming off a 23-point win over Toronto. The TomBox algorithm gives Chicago a 63.4 chance to cover the spread, mainly because of an expected 44-37.4 rebounding edge and by committing four fewer turnovers, 12 to OKC’s 16.1.
Despite 31.2 points and 5.8 assists from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the TomBox algorithm projects the Bulls winning 114.3-103.7 behind 25.7 points from All-Star Zach LaVine.
Top Over/Under Pick
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Los Angeles Lakers: Over 223 (-110)
The Lakers may have the best defensive efficiency in the NBA, but Minnesota not only plays at a fast pace but is also terrible defensively. Seven of the Wolves’ eight games under new head coach Chris Finch have been over 223, and the TomBox algorithm gives this game a 62.4% chance of hitting the over as well. Of Minnesota’s 39 games, 22 have gone over.
With 14.1 made three-pointers for Minnesota and 12.8 for Los Angeles, the TomBox algorithm projects a 117.5-113 Lakers win, plenty to pound the over and end your betting night on a strong note.
