With only three NFL games left to be played, it’s crunch time. This weekend will decide the two teams headed to Super Bowl LV. The game under the spotlight for this preview is the AFC Championship between the Bills and Chiefs. For Saturday’s NFC Championship matchups, check out this article by Mike Barner.
If you happened to have blacked out from celebrating that 10-leg parlay, here’s a recap of the Divisional Round games.
Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs: Chiefs -3 (-115)
Point Total: Over/Under 54 (-115/-105)
Boy-oh-boy, we have a juicy matchup this Sunday. The Buffalo Bills travel to Arrowhead Stadium to battle the Kansas City Chiefs for a chance to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. There are a couple of uncertainties as we head into this weekend. For the Chiefs – nothing looms larger than the health of Patrick Mahomes. As for the Bills, they’ve been down this road before, with less than desirable results. So here are the main storylines to keep an eye on for this weekend.
Patrick Mahomes Concussion
If you have seen the play where Mahomes went down, you don’t need to be a doctor to know he got knocked the f*ck out! Well, maybe not totally KOed, but it was apparent he suffered a pretty serious concussion. It’s never good when you look like a victim at the receiving end of a Tyson left hook while trying to stand up from a tackle.
Thankfully, there have been some reports of Mahomes taking “some big steps.” Let’s take a look at the official “Return-To-Participation” steps Mahomes needs to progress through in order to per the NFL:
| Phase 1: Symptom Limited Exercise |
| Phase 2: Aerobic Exercise |
| Phase 3: Football Specific Exercise |
| Phase 4: Club-Based Non-Contact Training Drills |
| Phase 5: Full Football Activity/Clearance |
Assuming he’s not cleared by the time this article comes out, there might be a situation where the Chiefs would need to rely on Chad Henne for another week. While this would be a massive downgrade at the QB position, it doesn’t mean Buffalo stampedes through Arrowhead with a victory. The Chiefs are stacked in all other skill positions and could even get Clyde Edwards-Helaire back Sunday. More importantly – the Chiefs have Andy Reid coaching them. If there was any coach in the league that could overcome losing their best player and still make a run for the Super Bowl, it’s Big Red.
Week Six Takeaways
I really wish I had the sports almanac that Biff had in Back to the Future Part II. Sadly, this will never become a reality. However, I do have the next best thing at my disposal – and so do you. The Odds Factory’s TomBox predicts the Chiefs defeat the Bills in the AFC Championship game by a little more than a touchdown. Considering the current spread is set at -3, this is certainly in the realm of possibilities. Let’s travel back in time to Week Six when these two teams faced each other and take a look at some key things that stood out.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
The rookie was certainly outstanding against this Buffalo defense in Week Six. He touched the ball 30 times and produced 170 total yards. This is why the Chiefs’ time of possession was nearly double that of the Bills. Keeping Josh Allen and Diggs off the field proved to be effective, so it’s going to be interesting to see if they implement the same strategy with Darren Williams. Last week he showed that he is capable of being that bell cow when asked upon; however, CEH is clearly the more dynamic player. This Bills team can strike at any moment. So the Chiefs cannot leave any weapon on the shelf.
The Blitz-less Bills
In Week Six, the Bills did not blitz Mahomes once. You read that correctly – not a single play. I’m no defensive coordinator, but against Mahomes, I would think the last thing you would want to do is give him more time to survey his options downfield. So, I guess the idea was to keep the action in front of them, containing him in the pocket. Spoiler alert – it wasn’t successful. Mahomes finished with 225 yards, two touchdowns, and a quarterback rating of 128. So the question is – do they implement the same strategy? In my opinion, I don’t think they do. Mahomes is a rare breed, allowing him to pick apart this defense is the last thing the Bills can afford to do.
Offensive Game Plan
If you watch the Bills’ games, you will see they have the same formula every Sunday. It’s the Allen to Diggs connection or bust. The game plan is the same each week. Zip a few short slants to Beasley, have Gabriel Davis make a couple of toe drag swags, and give the running backs a combined 10 touches. This offense is just Josh Allen scrambling around looking for Diggs down the field. To Buffalo’s credit, it has worked so far. They are one game away from the Super Bowl. But the question is, will it be enough to keep up with the Chiefs’ high-octane offense?
It’s going to be a great weekend of playoff football. We couldn’t ask for a better slate. In the first game, we have two Hall of Fame quarterbacks facing off, and later – two teams with very different Super Bowl experiences face off in the AFC Championship game. The Bills are hungry to get another shot at the trophy, and the Chiefs are looking for a second helping. If you are planning on betting on this game but can’t decide where to put your money – check out my picks article. Don’t miss anything; follow me on Twitter @AJGIII07.
