The NFL Draft is an exciting moment. Fans and analysts get their first peeks at the NFL teams they’ll cover (and bet on) next season. Now that sports betting is legal, football fans can wager on the NFL Draft.
However, there’s a trap door hiding underneath NFL Draft bets. A while back, we wrote an article telling bettors how to avoid falling for hype. But the NFL Draft picks are largely driven by hype. So, how do bettors make smart betting choices and avoid falling for the hype surrounding certain players? It’s not as hard as some bettors may think. Bettors will just have to pay attention to the players’ stats and the team order.
How The NFL Draft Works
Everyone reading this will know that the NFL Draft is when teams pick the brightest young talent and trade players. However, the way that players are drafted has important implications for bettors. NFL draftees aren’t told that they’re going to be picked in one round or another. Instead, their stats determine their likely draft positions.
College scouts watch some athletes for years to see whether they have what it takes to compete professionally. They compile all the statistics and plan for the NFL Draft for years in advance. Sports journalists also like to break this kind of news first. So, they get the necessary information to report on it and speculate about the most likely first-round draft picks. That’s how young athletes figure out how much hope they have to be NFL Draft stars.
However, sports reporting can fall into the trap of groupthink. If all the major sports outlets think a few players are certain NFL Draft picks, it can be hard to argue with them. High-profile sports journalists and analysts have informed opinions. They’re not just noise-makers. Saying they’re all hype would be reductive.
But not every sports outlet has a crack team of analysts to crunch numbers. Some of them do rely on hype from the work that major sports outlets have done. So, how do bettors tell the informed from the hype men?
The Team Matters, Too
While the NFL Draft’s focus is on incoming players, the teams they go to matter, too. There could be an amazing running back out there who could transform a team with a star quarterback but no long game. However, a team with a solid running back but a terrible quarterback would have far greater priorities than a star running back. That star running back may have the best stats in the game, but the team he goes to will matter, too.
So, if a team has a need in one position that outweighs the star running back, that star could be a second-round pick. Even if he’s incredible, the teams’ needs could conspire against him.
That’s why bettors pouring over news coverage of their NFL Draft stars must look for coverage that takes team needs into account. Yes, with 32 teams, someone will probably take the star in the first round. But without factoring teams’ needs into draft pick predictions, it’s impossible to know. So if you’re watching a sports show or reading a sports magazine that doesn’t take the team into account, you know that you’re getting unreliable sports analysis.
NFL Draft Betting
NFL Draft betting can seem like free money. However, sportsbooks know how to adjust their odds and wagers to make sure they don’t go broke during the NFL Draft. For example, DraftKings’ odds on Trevor Lawrence being the first overall pick are -10,000. Bettors would have to wager $10,000 to win $100 with those odds. DraftKings is considering Trevor Lawrence a sure thing. The next best odds are Zach Wilson with +1,600. It looks like Trevor Lawrence has it.
However, there’s always room for an upset. So, sportsbooks have made sure they’re not going broke if the favorite wins or if there’s an upset. If Trevor Lawrence is picked first, then sportsbooks will pay out little. If he isn’t, then the money placed on him to win will make up for the underdog’s increased payout. So, if bettors are looking for free cash, they’re better off looking for $20s in the gutters on the street.
But for studious bettors, the NFL Draft is a great test to see how well they’ve compared player stats with team needs. Whether bettors do the analysis themselves or read someone else’s, it’s a good way to see how their predictions match reality. Remember, there’s always another NFL Draft next year. Now’s a good time to catch your mistakes and improve over time. Even if you don’t get bragging rights this year, you can set yourself up to crush it next year.
…Or the year after that if you’re really struggling.
