The Super Bowl provides a smorgasbord of player props to consider. As you’re working your way through the options, sometimes the best bets are the ones that you don’t make. Keeping that in mind, here are three Super Bowl player props that it might be best to avoid. All odds were obtained from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Patrick Mahomes: 1.5 Touchdown Passes (Over -400, Under +295)
We have two lines for Mahomes’ touchdown passes, this one and the other one that is set at 2.5 (over -130, under +105). The over on 1.5 seems like a layup given that Mahomes threw at least two touchdown passes in all but two games during the regular season. After throwing just one touchdown pass versus the Browns in the Divisional Round, he stormed back with three in the AFC Championship against the Bills.
The reason why I’m avoiding this is that, while I think he hits the over, the odds are just terrible. We have a ton of other appealing props to choose from, so why tie up some of your funds in a wager that provides so little upside? If you want to put some shekels on a Mahomes passing TD prop, then choose a side on the 2.5 number, which has much more appealing odds.
Rob Gronkowski: 29.5 Receiving Yards (Over -112, Under -112)
They did a great job making this a tough one to consider in either direction. Entering this game, Gronkowski has posted exactly 29 receiving yards in three of his last six games. He didn’t catch more than three passes in a game during that stretch. And he’s clearly not the weapon that he once was earlier in his career. Also, with the plethora of talent that the Bucs have at wide receiver, they don’t need to rely on Gronkowski for production.
Still, there is a path for Gronkowski to blow past the over in what could be a high-scoring affair that includes a lot of pass attempts. With the Chiefs likely focusing their efforts on slowing down Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Antonio Brown, Gronkowski could receive some soft coverages. This is too close to call either way.
Darrel Williams: 8.5 Rushing Attempts (Over -112, Under -112)
After barely seeing the field for most of the season, Williams has been busy lately. He has received at least 10 carries in three of the last four games, including 13 in both of the first two playoff games. He hasn’t let his added opportunities go to waste, totaling 130 rushing yards and a touchdown during the playoffs.
With that said, it’s important to note that Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Le’Veon have been battling injuries that have forced them to miss time. Early indications are that both players should be available for the Super Bowl, creating a bit of a log jam at the position. Still, with how well Williams has played, he could take on the lead role. With all of the uncertainty surrounding these three running backs, it might be best to allocate your funds elsewhere.
