It’s supposed to be a snowy and windy night in Orchard Park on Saturday when Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens head north to face Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills. Buffalo comes in as a 2.5-point favorite, which essentially makes the game a toss-up.
Our TomBox predictions and projections agree with that assessment.
Game Result Projection
The Bills win in just over 52% of our simulations. But the Ravens pulling the upset in about 47% of the sims. As in any close game, especially in the postseason, the turnover battle is crucial. Baltimore commits fewer turnovers in 58% of our simulations and wins 65% of those contests. Buffalo advances to the AFC title game 79% of the time in our model when it commits fewer mistakes than the Ravens.
Player Props to Watch For
Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson is projected to pass for 246.7 yards with 2.0 passing TDs and 0.6 interceptions, with 74.2 yards on the ground. He has a 22% chance to rush for a TD. And the Ravens win in 66% of our simulations where he has a rushing TD.
J.K. Dobbins is projected to run for 50.6 yards, with Gus Edwards contributing 40.6 yards. In the passing game, “Hollywood” Brown is projected for 5.3 catches, 79.7 yards, and 0.7 TDs. Also, Mark Andrews is expected to have 5.6 catches for 74.3 yards and 0.6 scores.
On the Bills’ side of the ball, Josh Allen is projected to throw for 275.6 yards and 1.8 TDs to 0.4 interceptions and run for 50.6 yards with 0.5 TDs. In our models where he has a 2:1 TD to pick ratio, Buffalo wins 51% of those games. Devin Singletary is expected to run for 79.2 yards and 0.8 TDs. And Stefon Diggs is estimated to have six catches for 76.3 yards and 0.4 TDs.
Our model also has the over of 50 more than 57% of the time. But this game between the Ravens and Bills is expected to be super close.