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SMART MONEY NFL PICKS FOR 10/9/2020

NFL Season Week 5: Christian McCaffrey vs. Grady Jarrett - Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons

After another 3-0 record with my picks in Week 4, I’m now 10-2 overall for the NFL season going into Week 5. I’ll look to keep things rolling with three more wagers in what is shaping up to be an uncertain Week 5 because of COVID-19. As per usual, I’ll pick one moneyline, one spread, and one over/under wager for you to consider. All odds were obtained from the DraftKings Sportsbook.

CAROLINA PANTHERS @ ATLANTA FALCONS: PANTHERS ML (+106)

Well, this is my first week not taking the Bills moneyline. It’s a strange week in terms of moneyline plays since there are so many heavy favorites. With that in mind, why not take a chance on a game with plus odds? The Bills going 4-0 has helped up build up some equity, anyways.

My favorite wager with plus odds in taking the Panthers to defeat the Falcons. They have won back-to-back games and they didn’t face bad teams, either, in the Chargers and Cardinals. Not only that, but they won both games without Christian McCaffrey (ankle). Mike Davis has stepped up to perform very well in his place. And Teddy Bridgewater has stabilized the quarterback position after Cam Newton left town. The Falcons are a mess, having lost all four games this season and posting a -32 point differential that is the fifth-worst mark in the league, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them fall to 0-5. It likely won’t help their cause that Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley are both battling injuries.

ARIZONA CARDINALS @ NEW YORK JETS: CARDINALS -7 (-114)

The Jets are well on their way to gaining the number one pick in next year’s draft. Already sitting at 0-4, they are now looking at the prospects of playing without Sam Darnold (shoulder) moving forward. His long-term status for this NFL season is still up in the air, but he will at least be out for Week 5. That means they will turn over the keys to their inept offense to Joe Flacco, who has played a total of 17 games the last two seasons and has thrown at least 10 interceptions in every season, in which he has played all 16 games. He has also never thrown more than 27 touchdown passes in a single season.

The Cardinals will be looking to rebound from a disappointing loss to the Panthers last week in which Kyler Miller threw for only 133 yards. On the bright side, he did record three touchdown passes and 78 rushing yards, so their offense did not lay an egg by any means. Considering how poorly the Jets have played, even with Darnold under center, I’ll take the Cardinals to win this one going away.

CAROLINA PANTHERS @ ATLANTA FALCONS: PANTHERS OVER 26.5 POINTS (-109)

Let’s go back to this game for another wager. The Falcons have arguably the worst defense in the league, allowing an average of 34.5 points per game. In fact, they have allowed at least 30 points in all four of their games. The Panthers have plenty of weapons surrounding Bridgewater, including the dynamic wide receiver duo of D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson. The Panthers have had their own defensive issues by allowing an average of 25.5 points per game. So the Falcons might not have trouble scoring, either. That could lead to even more throwing attempts for the Panthers, further improving their chances of hitting the over.

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