Are you new to betting on NBA games? Maybe you’ve already been placing NBA wagers, but haven’t been happy with your results. Either way, we’ve got you covered. Here is a list of seven rules/topics that you should consider when planning out your NBA wagers each night.
1. Shop Lines/Odds
This might seem fairly obvious, but sometimes people get familiar with one particular betting site and just lock in all of their wagers, NBA or otherwise, with one sportsbook. However, if you’re looking to maximize every dollar, that is less than ideal. First, you want to shop lines. For example, let’s say the Los Angeles Lakers are going to play the Dallas Mavericks. Sportsbook A has the Lakers favored by six points. However, Sportsbook B has them favored by 5.5 points. That’s significant because if the Lakers were to win by exactly six points, a wager on Sportsbook A would end up being a push while a wager on Sportsbook B would end up being a winner.
The same situation comes into play with odds, especially when it comes to player props. Two sportsbooks could have an identical prop for a player, but at different odds. Let’s say LeBron James has a player prop of 8.5 assists on both Sportsbook A and Sportsbook B. However, the odds of him hitting the over on Sportsbook A are -120 while the odds for the over on Sportsbook B are -110. You’re still wagering on the same outcome, but you’ll make more money if you place your wager with Sportsbook B.
2. Bet Early
Some people like to wait until just before tip-off to place their NBA wagers to make sure nothing unexpected happens, such as a player hurting himself during warmups or a star being ruled out for rest purposes. However, by waiting so long, you might be passing on an opportunity to get a good point-spread on a game. Lines can change over the course of a day, which might make a game less appealing.
For example, let’s say that the Chicago Bulls are set to host the New York Knicks on a Tuesday night. Late Monday night, the line comes out with the Bulls being one-point favorites. In this example, the Bulls have been a better team than the Knicks. And when they met two previous times this season, the Bulls won by four and six points, respectively. Therefore, it surprises you to see them only favored by one point. However, you decide to wait to place your wager until closer to tip-off to be sure that nothing changes on the injury front over the course of the day.
The problem is, other people may have also realized that the Bulls should be favored by more than one point. So they immediately lock in their NBA wagers that night when the line first comes out or very early the next morning. By the time we’ve reached late Tuesday afternoon, the Bulls are now favored by 2.5 points. The moral of the story is that if you feel strongly about the value of a line when it first comes out, don’t hesitate to pounce on it with an early wager. It might not still be there waiting for you as game time approaches.
3. Factor in Home-Court Advantage
Don’t understatement the power of home-court advantage for some teams. It’s particularly important when you are placing moneyline wagers in the NBA since you are just looking for the home team to come away with a win, regardless of the margin of victory. For example, let’s say the Los Angeles Clippers are hosting the Phoenix Suns and are favored by 6.5 points. Across their last 20 home games, the Clippers are 15-5 straight up. So taking them on the moneyline could be a wise wager. However, if you’re looking to take them to cover, it should be noted that they are just 10-10 against the spread across those same 20 contests. These are two significantly contrasting stats that need to be considered when placing your wager.
4. Don’t Forget Injuries
This might be the single-most-important factor to take into account each week considering how small NBA rosters are. If a team is missing their star player, it can significantly impact their prospects of winning or covering the spread. Take a team like the Houston Rockets, who rely so heavily on James Harden. If he were to sit out, not only would they have a tough time winning their matchup, but they might also score significantly fewer points, which could impact the ability of the over to hit on the point total for the game.
Offensive-minded players shouldn’t be the only ones that you are factoring in when it comes to injuries, though. Sometimes teams rely on key defensive players who don’t always contribute much on the offensive end. For example, Patrick Beverley is one of the best defensive guards in the league. But he’s not much of an offensive threat given that he has averaged fewer than 10 points a game in four of the last five seasons. However, if he is out, the opposition might have an easier time scoring, which might make the over more appealing.
5. Matchups
Factoring in teams’ strengths and weaknesses is very important. For example, the Orlando Magic are set to face the New Orleans Pelicans. The Pelicans have averaged 115.8 points per game. But scoring might be more difficult for them to come by in this matchup given that the Magic have only allowed 108.3 points per contest, which is the fifth-lowest mark in the league. The problem for the Magic has been their offense given that they have only averaged 107.3 points a game. However, they might have an easier time in that department for this game considering the Pelicans have allowed an average of 117.1 points per game, which is the fourth-most in the league. The Magic enter as seven-point underdogs. But given these trends, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them keep the game close.
6. Game Circumstances
One of the biggest things to make sure you are aware of before betting on an NBA game is whether or not a team is playing on the second night of a back-to-back set. When teams play on consecutive nights, they can sometimes sit some of their star players. This is a frequent occurrence for teams with championship aspirations because they want to keep their star players fresh for the playoffs. An example is the Clippers preventing Kawhi Leonard from playing on consecutive nights for the entirety of the 2019-20 season. If a team like this is playing for the second straight night, take that into consideration before placing your wager, especially if players haven’t officially been ruled out yet. If you can track patterns for teams resting their players, you might be able to jump on a favorable spread before a player is ruled out and the line moves.
7. In-Game Betting
The NBA is often referred to as a game of runs. That means, more often than not, both teams are going to have stretches during a game where they will significantly outscore their opponent. You can use this to your advantage, especially in the first quarter of games. For instance, let’s say the Denver Nuggets are hosting the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Nuggets are a vastly superior team and they are playing at home, so they enter as eight-point favorites. However, the Timberwolves have some firepower in Karl-Anthony Towns and D’Angelo Russell, who help them jump out to a 19-6 lead midway through the first quarter. Nuggets’ star Nikola Jokić is 0-for-4 from the field. So it’s no surprise that they have struggled offensively, given that he has averaged 19.9 points per game.
With the score 19-6, you can now place a wager on the Nuggets being favored by just two points. You were on the fence placing a wager heading into the game with the eight-point spread. But you still feel confident that the Nuggets will make a run and eventually win the game against their inferior foe. You can now place your wager for them as only two-point favorites, or maybe even just take the moneyline at improved odds. Either way, keeping a close eye on the game and believing that the Nuggets will eventually make a run of their own could help fatten your wallet.
