Oh, when the Saints go marching in! What a game by Alvin Kamara and the Saints. On a night where the Saints scored 53 points, Brees threw just 19 passes, as New Orleans limited Brees and leaned heavily on the running game. I ended up going 3-1 with my picks and didn’t have to sweat much. I couldn’t have asked for a more perfect game script. That Saints -7 spread was never in doubt, as Kamara couldn’t be stopped on the ground. Rushing for six touchdowns, he reminded us why he’s one of the best backs in the league. Latavius Murray also joined in on the fun by generating 72 yards on 12 carries. He hit his over 35.5 rushing yards prop fairly early in the 1st half. Cook had a decent game, but as expected, he doesn’t see the field much when the Vikings fall behind. Unfortunately, Kirk Cousins did his best Phillip Rivers impersonation and finished with 0 rushing attempts, spoiling my perfect night. Going into Monday Night NFL Football, my record is 5-3.
Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots: Bills -3.5 First Half (-120)
It’s pretty remarkable how fast the tables have turned in the AFC East after just one off season. Brady leaves the Patriots, and Belichick misses the playoffs for the first time since 2008. All they can do now is watch Josh Allen and the Bills continue to dominate and lock up their division.
The Bills have been unstoppable with Josh Allen at the helm, and they don’t look to be stopping anytime soon. I can see them leaving Gillette Stadium with another win tonight. However, I think this ends up being a closer game than expected. Josh Allen has been historically bad against New England. The last time these two teams met, he finished with an abysmal 65.5 QBR. The play I like tonight is the Bills laying -3.5 in the first half spread. For the year, they are outscoring their opponents by over 5 points in the first half. I like this more than the full game spread at -7 because the Bills tend to let up scoring, and I could see a back door cover by the Patriots.
Player Props
Stefon Diggs Over 6.5 Receptions (-180)
It is pretty obvious who Josh Allen looks for first on passing downs. Over the past 5 games, Diggs has double-digit catches. This line could be at 8.5 and I would still consider it. I don’t see how you can fade this Bills offense, let alone Diggs right now. I am concerned that Belichick game-plans around Diggs because he has a history of taking out the opponent’s biggest threat. Even so, this Patriots defense isn’t as great as they were in previous years. Seven catches shouldn’t be too much to ask for one of the best receivers in the game right now.
Cam Newton Over 37.5 Rushing Yards (-125)
I like this prop for a couple of reasons. First off, the last time Cam faced this Bills team, he was able to rack up almost 60 yards on 9 carries. The second reason is that the Patriots don’t have much of an offensive attack outside of Cam himself. He has only thrown for over 200 yards just four times this year. They have a good set of running backs in Sony Michel and James White, but they just don’t use them as much as they should. I think regardless of the game script, Cam will have to make some plays with his legs. Lastly, Cam is on a one year deal in Foxboro. The regular season is coming to an end, and this a perfect spot to audition for the job next year. If he can’t show up and at least look formidable against the new AFC East top dog, he could be designated for a backup job in the NFL going forward.
I can see both of these teams wanting to prove something tonight. I think a win here would mean a lot to both these coaches. For the last couple of years, the Patriots have dominated this division and now they have one last chance to stick it to the team now holding the torch. On the other hand, the Bills Mafia would love to send Belichick and the Patriots through a wooden table to put an exclamation point on this rivalry. Personally, I hope it’s Cam Newton that goes through that table because nothing is more obnoxious than the way he types on his Instagram.
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