HOW TO BEST PLAY THE PROP MARKET IN THE CHIEFS/NINERS SUPER BOWL CLASH
Since 1986, when William “The Refrigerator” Perry slammed into the end zone and kicked off the “Super Bowl Prop” era, the market has scaled up and up and up every year. Amazingly, 65% of all Super Bowl betting is now on props.
As we countdown towards this year’s “Titanic Tilt” (is it fair to say that with the Titans losing?), we take a look at some good ground rules for betting props.
HAVE A THESIS
Heading into the AFC championship, I was 100% sure that KC was going to learn from the mistakes Belichick and Harbaugh made against the Titans in the first round. Priority for both coaches was taking away the tight end and all the seam routes that fueled Tennessee’s run during the regular season. They both felt they could contain Derrick Henry, even with the strong safety not being run-centric.
Oops, that didn’t work out well, and the DH Express plowed the Pats and the Ravens out of the playoffs.
I knew Andy Reid would not make the same mistake. So, with that in mind, I played under 108 rushing yards for Henry, over 236 combined passing and rushing for Tannehill, and over 1 ½ touchdown passes for Tannehill.
I hit two out of three. Henry went under, TDs went over, but Tannehill topped at 228, and I lost the 3rd bet.
Have a thesis and look for props that fit your thesis.
BE AN UNDERTAKER
What do more people go to see at the movies, superhero blockbusters or slow period dramas? That’s right, superhero blockbusters.
And you know why? People want to see action, action, and more action. This is the reason why 60% of all betting action goes on the OVER, even though UNDERS win 57% of the time.
The Super Bowl, which is the biggest blockbuster sporting event in the United States, is bound to attract dramatically more “over” than “under” action.
Points, yards, TDs, receptions. Think “under” first when weighing in the pros and cons of a particular prop.
THE MIDDLE PATH IS THE ROAD TO PROSPERITY
There are so many bets going on with all the props out there, and money is flying everywhere. Lines-makers from one operator may have a completely different line than someone from another operator.
What you can do here is play a MIDDLE and have a shot for a big score without having to take much risk. Sounds too good to be true, but this is how it works.
For example, Emmanuel Sanders has an over/under of 43 yards. One operator gets hit with a ton of over money on Sanders’ over, and they jack the line to 47 ½. Other operators are not seeing much Sanders money, so they keep the line at 43. What you should do is bet Sanders over 43 at one place and under 47 ½ at the other and hope it falls in the middle.
On Wall Street, it’s also called arbitrage, and vast wealth has been built with this strategy. But you need to dig in, look at all the lines from all the bookmakers, and hope to find a big fat middle.
CRUNCH THE NUMBERS
The incredible number of bets, being offered in an incredible number of places, allows you to find value in the nooks and crannies.
The amount of data that exists in public spaces allows you to dig into the numbers and find bets that will pay above the imputed odds. That will also take a lot of time and effort. So, if you don’t want to work that hard, let us do it for you.