Are you new to betting on NFL games? Maybe you’ve already been placing NFL wagers, but haven’t been happy with your results? Either way, we have you covered. Here is a list of seven rules/topics that you should consider when planning out your NFL wagers each week.
1. Shop Lines/Odds
This might seem fairly obvious, but sometimes people get familiar with one particular betting site and just lock in all of their wagers, NFL or otherwise, with one sportsbook. However, if you’re looking to maximize every dollar, that is less than ideal. First, you want to shop lines. For example, let’s say the Dallas Cowboys are set to play the Kansas City Chiefs. Sportsbook A has the Chiefs favored by nine points. However, Sportsbook B has them favored by 8.5 points. That’s significant because if the Chiefs were to win by exactly nine points, a wager on Sportsbook A would end up being a push while a wager on Sportsbook B would end up being a winner.
The same situation comes into play with odds, especially when it comes to player props. Two sportsbooks could have an identical prop for a player, but at different odds. Let’s say Patrick Mahomes has a player prop of 2.5 touchdown passes on both Sportsbook A and Sportsbook B. However, the odds of him hitting the over on Sportsbook A are -135 while the odds for the over on Sportsbook B are -120. You’re still wagering on the same outcome, but you’ll make more money if you place your wager with Sportsbook B.
2. Bet Early
Some people like to wait until gameday to place their NFL wagers to make sure nothing unexpected happens, such as a player hurting themselves during practice in the week leading up to the game. However, by waiting so long, you might also be passing on an opportunity to get a good point-spread on a game. Lines can change over the course of a week, which might make a game less appealing.
As an example, let’s say that the Green Bay Packers are set to play the Minnesota Vikings. On Monday, the line comes out with the Packers being three-point favorites. In this example, the Packers have been a much better team than the Vikings this season. So it might surprise you to see them only favored by three points. However, you decide to wait to place your wager to be sure that nothing changes on the injury front over the course of the week.
The problem is, other people may have also realized that the Packers should be favored by more than three points, so they lock in their wagers early in the week. By the time we’ve reached Sunday, the Packers are now favored by four points. The moral of the story is that if you feel strongly about the value of a line when it first comes out, don’t hesitate to pounce on it with an early wager. It might not still be there waiting for you later in the week.
3. Factor in Home-Field Advantage
Don’t understatement the power of home-field advantage for some teams. It’s particularly important when you are placing moneyline wagers in the NFL since you are just looking for the home team to come away victorious. For example, let’s say the Seattle Seahawks are hosting the San Francisco 49ers and are favored by 4.5 points. Across their last 30 home games, the Seahawks are 19-11 straight up, so taking them on the moneyline could be a wise wager. However, if you’re looking to take them to cover, it should be noted that they are 13-16-1 against the spread across those same 30 contests. These are two very contrasting stats that need to be considered when placing your wager.
4. Don’t Forget Injuries
This might be the single-most-important factor to take into account each week. If a team is missing their starting quarterback, they could obviously be in line to see their offensive production take a nosedive. The same could be said for a team’s rushing attack if they are missing their top running back. However, you need to take into account injuries for more than just the star players on a team.
Let’s throw out another example. The Indianapolis Colts will take on the Tennessee Titans, who deploy a run-heavy offensive scheme behind Derrick Henry. The Colts enter the matchup as five-point underdogs, but you like the idea of taking the points because they have been one of the best teams in the league at stopping the run. The problem is, they’re set to play the game without their best linebacker, Darius Leonard, and defensive tackle, DeForest Buckner. With them out, the Colts’ run defense might not be nearly as stout. With the potential for Henry to feast on backups, taking the points could turn out to be an unwise wager.
5. Weather
Oftentimes, people see snow in the forecast for an NFL game and immediately downgrade scoring expectations for that contest. That might be the right decision if a heavy snowstorm is coming. But maybe the weather event to be the most concerned about when betting on NFL games is the wind. Strong wind gusts can not only hamper teams’ abilities to throw deep passes, but it can also wreak havoc on kickers. We all know how fickle weather forecasts can be. So a grim forecast on Monday can change by the time we get to Sunday, or vice versa. If a game forecast makes a turn for the worse during the middle of the week, it may present an opportunity for you to pounce on an under.
6. Matchups
Factoring in teams’ strengths and weaknesses is very important. For example, the Baltimore Ravens are set to face the Pittsburgh Steelers. Between quarterback Lamar Jackson’s ability to run the ball and the three-headed rushing attack of Mark Ingram, Gus Edwards, and J.K. Dobbins, the Ravens have been able to amass a winning record thanks, in large part, to their ability to run the ball. However, that could be a problem for them against the Steelers, who enter their matchup having allowed the second-fewest rushing yards per game in the league. The Steelers are four-point underdogs for the game. So not only is taking the points appealing, but you might even be able to take a chance on the moneyline at plus odds.
7. Game Circumstances
There is a lot to tackle here. Things to consider are teams on the West Coast traveling East to play 1 PM EDT games, teams on short rest, and teams coming off of a bye. Regarding bye weeks, let’s create an example that the Minnesota Vikings are coming off a bye week to play the Detroit Lions and they are favored by three points. Over the last 10 seasons, the Vikings are 3-7 overall coming off of their bye and 3-7 against the spread, meaning placing a wager on the Lions, despite their underdog status, could prove to be profitable.
For another example, let’s say the New York Giants are set to play at home against the Las Vegas Raiders on a Sunday, but they are five-point underdogs. The previous week, the Raiders played at home on Monday Night Football while the Giants were on a bye. The Giants already have the advantage of added rest coming off of their bye, but they gain further advantages with the Raiders not only playing on a short week but also having to travel to the East Coast for the game. That is not an ideal situation for the Raiders to cover.
